A NOTE: Our Russia-Ukraine Resources are updated weekly - if you're accessing the page three or more weeks past the below date, pieces mentioned in this post may have been removed to make room for up-to-date resources.
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Updated Resources - October 9, 2024
An Air Force Global Strike Command unarmed Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile launches during an operational test at 12:21 a.m. Pacific Daylight Time 4 August 2020, at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Hanah Abercrombie, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
KEY DEVELOPMENTS
Kyiv Independent: Newsfeed
Novaya Gazeta Europe: Newsfeed
The Insider: Newsfeed
The Telegraph via Apple Podcasts - Ukraine: The Latest
Cross-section illustration depicting a family in their underground lead fallout shelter, early 1960s. (Unknown photographer, from the collection of Pictorial Parade/Getty Images, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
WHAT'S ON OUR MIND
In addition to our weekly resource update, today we also offer an updated collection of pieces on the Israeli-Hamas war.
In recent weeks, at a National Security Council meeting, Putin announced several proposed changes to Russian nuclear deterrence doctrine signaling that the Kremlin may regard a proxy war, in which certain conditions are met, as justification for Russian nuclear retaliation. This proclamation has invoked renewed public interest in the nuclear risk. Track Two’s Global Threats initiative has highlighted the risk of Nuclear weapons as a key threat facing humanity and our planet, convening nuclear nonproliferation experts, peacebuilders, and activists in conference (The Third Bomb & How We Prevent It - October 2021) and discussion to assess this threat and seek remedy.
After the invasion of Ukraine, our network launched renewed discussions exploring what the ratcheting tensions between two nuclear states - Russia and the US - meant for our collective survival. In today’s update, find a selection of resources on Putin’s recent escalatory remarks, as well as the intersection of the Ukraine War and nuclear threat, and the broader state of nuclear threat.
We begin with Meduza’s analysis of Putin’s announcement, noting that under this policy ‘clarification,’ at least two conditions for the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons have already been met during the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and offers insight into the role of interpretation to threat assessment. RT offers a Russian perspective on what the publication cites as ‘Russia’s own Monroe Doctrine’. For those seeking a primary source, we include the currently available official document on nuclear deterrence (note: this document has not been updated since 2020 and thus does not include the new changes) from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as that of NATO.
The following pieces from The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, one of the pre-eminent nonprofits concerned with environmental and global security issues, offers guidance, perspectives, and data on the present nuclear risk. One piece notes that Russia’s lack of nuclear weapons preparation or usage in the war to date might suggest conventional assumptions must be interrogated and reframed; it also argues that the longer the war, the greater the likelihood of nuclear escalation. Another perspective explores whether Russia may be more inclined to deploy nuclear weapons if it is winning the war, pushing back against the popular belief that deployment would come as a hail mary. A third warns of the peril posed by ‘escalating to de-escalate’ in the context of nuclear politics.
Ahead of next month’s elections, past Track Two participant, Siegfried S. Hecker outlines key questions for US presidential candidates on the intersection of the Ukraine War, foreign policy, and nuclear weapons. The publication shares the Council on Strategic Risk’s visualization tool providing curated data on every deployed nuclear weapons system developed by nuclear states, identifying areas for multinational cooperation and measures of restraint. Taking a birds eye view, The Bulletin provides individual profiles on four nuclear powers (Russia, the US, China, and North Korea) produced by experts for the publication’s ‘Nuclear Notebook’ series which catalogs global nuclear powers and highlights shifts in nuclear weapons policy and politics.
Foreign Affairs suggests that the global nuclear order is increasingly challenged by growing cooperation among state actors with a vested interest in opposing the hegemonic Western order and contesting existing norms. The piece proscribes regional engagement and dialogue to uphold it. In Foreign Policy, experts warn of shifts to the strategic balance in Northeast Asia, bringing us closer than ever to renewed conflict in the Koreas and increasing the risk of a clash between nuclear states - China, North Korea, Russia, and the US. An informative brief from the Quincy Institute contemplates the role of the nuclear weapons lobby and questions whether it serves special interests or those of the public.
Finally, we return to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists for a ray of non-proliferation hope through one teacher’s approach to engaging the future generation in discourse on the nuclear threat.
In the overview, a peace studies professor explores the roots of violence and warfare, suggesting how we as a species might find a different path. Find also an explainer covering all of the currently proposed peace plans in Ukraine. In videos, we learn how Ukrainian veterans are on the cutting edge of rehabilitation, as well as how Ukraine has managed to keep the lights on amid near constant attacks to their electrical grid. In the arts, the National Ballet of Ukraine on tour in the US and the preservation of culture, history, and architecture in Chernihiv.
For California-based network members, the Russian rock band Mumiy Troll, founded by network member Ilya Lagutenko, will be performing this Friday, October 11, at the UC Theatre in Berkeley - visit the Arts section for a link to the ticketed event.
Find these stories and more on our Russia-Ukraine resource page . On our blog, our coverage of the Israel-Hamas war following the one year anniversary of the deadly October 7 attack includes resources on the fundamental shifts that have taken place since. Find also new reflections from our network on the ground in the middle east.
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